Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Hope after Super Tuesday

I believe that Marco Rubio would be the best choice for the Republican nomination and that Trump would be a disaster.  How do I feel after Super Tuesday?

Answer:  Still Hopeful (if you don’t want to read about politics, skip to the end of this post to find something better!)

Hope that this Election will Go Well

Super Tuesday results, taken by themselves at a surface level, certainly strongly favor Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination and favor Ted Cruz as Trump’s chief rival.

But, when examined in more detail I see good reason to hope that Trump will not win and that Rubio can.

A big question has been, “Does Trump have a ceiling among Republican primary voters?”.  If you look at the total votes cast on Super Tuesday, it appears that Trump got around 35%.  I believe that Trump does have a ceiling of somewhere between 35% and 40%.  I could be wrong, but I think that it is very likely that when either Cruz or Rubio drops out, we’ll see the other able to consistently beat Trump.  When will that happen?  I don’t know.  Perhaps late March or early April, which would not be too late.

His low ceiling means a Trump GOP nomination is very uncertain, and a Trump victory in a general election is very unlikely.

If Cruz and Rubio both stay in until the end I think either Trump will win outright or we will have a contested convention.

Everyone knew ahead of time that Super Tuesday was Cruz’s best hope.  His home state of Texas is huge and as expected he did very well there.  But, outside of Texas, Rubio actually got more total votes than Cruz, and in many of the contests coming up in the next few weeks, Rubio is likely to do even better.  If Kasich drops out (and I pray that he will, soon), then I believe that within a few weeks Rubio is likely to be clearly seen as the stronger opponent to Trump. 

If I’m wrong, and Cruz does better than Rubio over the next few weeks, it might be best for Rubio to drop out.  I would far rather have Cruz than Trump.

I’m not predicting Rubio will win, but I certainly feel it is way too early to give up on him. He still has a strong realistic chance to win the nomination, either outright, or at a contested convention.

note:  I based the numbers in this section on my own spread sheet of election vote tallies from Super Tuesday states as of early Wednesday morning.  I tried to be careful, but with so many numbers, I may have made a mistake, and the totals will change slightly after the last Super Tuesday votes trickle in.

Hope no Matter what Happens in the Election

Here’s the great thing about being a follower of Christ.  I can and should be passionately involved in working to bring as much good and light to our present world and our neighbors as we can.  One small part of this is being involved, at least through prayer and voting, in the political process.  This is especially true in a democracy where all of us really do have a role to play.

But, if despite our efforts we end up with a terrible government, and if morality continues to spiral down, and if the fabric of society unravels, and if persecution of Christians increases dramatically, and if our enemies around the world advance and gain power, and if our economy crashes and does not recover, we still have hope.  Glorious hope.  And not the type of hope I discussed above, which may or may not come to pass.  We have a hope which is as certain as the sun coming up, more solid than mountains, and deeper than the oceans.

Our hope, in God’s Words (fifteen verses about hope):

Psalm 31:24 Be strong and take heart, all you who hope in the LORD.

Psalm 42:5 Why, my soul, are you downcast? Why so disturbed within me? Put your hope in God, for I will yet praise him, my Savior and my God.

Psalm 65:5 You answer us with awesome and righteous deeds, God our Savior, the hope of all the ends of the earth and of the farthest seas, 6 who formed the mountains by your power, having armed yourself with strength, 7 who stilled the roaring of the seas, the roaring of their waves, and the turmoil of the nations.

Psalm 71:14 As for me, I will always have hope; I will praise you more and more.

Isaiah 40:31 but those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint.

Jeremiah 29:11 For I know the plans I have for you," declares the LORD, "plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future.

Lamentations 3:25 The LORD is good to those whose hope is in him, to the one who seeks him;

Acts 24:15 and I have the same hope in God as these men themselves have, that there will be a resurrection of both the righteous and the wicked.

Romans 5:5 And hope does not put us to shame, because God's love has been poured out into our hearts through the Holy Spirit, who has been given to us.

Romans 15:13 May the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace as you trust in him, so that you may overflow with hope by the power of the Holy Spirit.

Ephesians 1:18 I pray that the eyes of your heart may be enlightened in order that you may know the hope to which he has called you, the riches of his glorious inheritance in his holy people,

Colossians 1:27 To them God has chosen to make known among the Gentiles the glorious riches of this mystery, which is Christ in you, the hope of glory.

Titus 1:2 in the hope of eternal life, which God, who does not lie, promised before the beginning of time,

Titus 2:13 while we wait for the blessed hope-- the appearing of the glory of our great God and Savior, Jesus Christ,

1 Peter 1:13 Therefore, with minds that are alert and fully sober, set your hope on the grace to be brought to you when Jesus Christ is revealed at his coming.

Hebrews 13:16 And do not forget to do good and to share with others . . .

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